Probability has a popular meaning that is not the same as the mathematical meaning. As a small-business owner, you may act on hunches, guesses and instincts. After such actions, you might even say you ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Expert judgment elicitation is often required in probabilistic decision making and the evaluation of risk. One measure of the quality of probability distributions given by experts is calibration-the ...

Julia Kagan is a financial/consumer journalist and former senior editor, personal finance, of Investopedia. David Kindness is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and an expert in the fields of ...