The federal government recalled some furloughed workers specifically to produce the inflation report, which plays a key role for Social Security beneficiaries.

Economists expect prices to have risen 3.1% in September, which would mark a slight increase from a 2.9% year-over-year increase recorded a month prior. The anticipated reading would amount to the highest inflation since May 2024.

The first point to remember, economists say, is that the Fed believes its current benchmark interest rate — at a range of 4% to 4.25% — is so high that it is actually slowing down the U.S. economy. Fed officials have debated how much it is slowing the economy, but they all agree on this basic fact.

Futures traders see 96.7% odds that the central bank will trim the federal funds rate on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Friday’s inflation report will be the first comprehensive economic data to be released in more than three weeks and will attract intense interest.

The news that inflation could be worse is hardly comforting for millions of Americans still flabbergasted at the prices of necessities like food, housing and insurance.

The cost of living got even more expensive for Americans last month, with prices rising at the fastest pace since the start of the year.