This is Part 1 of 2026 By The Numbers, a series of posts that uses transparent analysis of our polls (reweighted to match election returns), the exit polls, election results down to the precinct level ...

Elliott Morris and David Nir dig into why the polls underestimated Democrats in the 2026 midterms. The miss was real but smaller than many people are claiming (with some incorrectly saying it was the ...

Black voters made up a larger share of the electorate than in 2024, helping to (maybe) flip Mississippi's Senate seat ...

Final early voting records from Texas, Georgia, and now North Carolina show Democrats benefiting from an “engagement gap” ...

This newsletter has grown exponentially over the last couple of months, adding over 10,000 free readers and hundreds of paid members. If you are one of the Strength In Numbers OG s, please join me in ...

Programming note! Our final podcast before the election is today, Oct. 29, 2026. David and I will take all your questions about the midterms live at 2:00 PM Eastern. Please join us! Paying members can ...

Latino voters more than doubled, from 1.5% of early voters to 3.4%, and voters under 30 went from 8% to 11%. And Republicans under 45 cast fewer early ballots than they did in 2022 — even as the total ...

Welcome to the Strength In Numbers Election Day live blog! This page is your one-stop shop for all things data-driven commentary on Election Day 2026. A few links and reminders for you: First, my last ...

As of writing, Democrats have won back their majorities in the U.S. House and Senate in a historic thumpin’ for the Republican Party. That Democrats have won both chambers is not a surprise — our ...

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