Nadeau, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of January 15, 2026.

San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin sat down with author and economic commentator ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District expanded modestly during the mid-November through December reporting period.

The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is ...

What is the contribution of changes in female labor supply to the decline of employment in routine jobs observed in the U.S.

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a ...

Recessions are periods where the labor market deteriorates rapidly. Supporting business conditions to prevent such ...

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ input costs, resulting in supply-side effects such as higher inflation and ...

Recent shifts in immigration flows have lowered the estimates of net international migration into the United States. New data indicate that net migration will be close to half a million people in 2025 ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...